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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Brock Purdy Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to run on 46.1% of their downs: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

Opposing teams have rushed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in football (127 per game) versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy.

Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.

Brock Purdy has been a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this year (8.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (15.4%).

As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Jacksonville's unit has been tremendous since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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