Brock Purdy Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs New York Jets · Week 1, 2024

Updated Sep 10, 2024 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 5.5 points.
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the 49ers to run on 44.8% of their chances: the 9th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) typically cause lessened passing efficiency, lower pass volume, and higher rush volume.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the fewest plays in the league last year, averaging a measly 53.5 plays per game.
Last year, the deficient Jets run defense has surrendered a monstrous 4.11 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 2nd-biggest rate in the league.
The New York defensive tackles grade out as the 10th-best unit in the league last year in regard to defending the run.

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