Brock Purdy Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 10th-most run-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 40.9% run rate.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles rank as the worst group of DTs in the league since the start of last season in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Brock Purdy to earn 2.4 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
Brock Purdy is not a mobile QB and has accounted for a lowly 4.2% of his team's carries since the start of last season, putting him in the 12th percentile among QBs.
Brock Purdy has averaged a mere 3.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the smallest marks in football among QBs (14th percentile).
Brock Purdy's ground efficiency (2.11 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (18th percentile among QBs).

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