Brock Purdy Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Passing Yards

Philadelphia Eagles vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 9:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 254.5 (-160/+116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 255.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 254.5 @ +116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, inciting opposing teams to attempt the most passes in football (43.0 per game) this year.
Brock Purdy has passed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (265.0) this year than he did last year (151.0).
Brock Purdy's 71.4% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a significant improvement in his throwing precision over last season's 66.4% rate.
Brock Purdy's passing efficiency has improved this year, accumulating 9.55 adjusted yards-per-target vs a mere 7.97 rate last year.
Opposing offenses have passed for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in football (280.0 per game) versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual approach.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the 49ers are projected by the projection model to call just 62.0 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
The 49ers have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
In this game, Brock Purdy is predicted by the model to average the 5th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 32.1.

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