Brock Purdy Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Passing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 243.5 (+127/-169).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 239.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 243.5 @ +127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 69.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.9 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.10 yards-after-the-catch this year: the most in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in football), which usually keeps the defense guessing and improves offensive efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 20-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Dallas Cowboys linebackers project as the 6th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.