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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy Completions
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Brock Purdy Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 49ers may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.

Brock Purdy's 76.0% Adjusted Completion% this season represents a substantial improvement in his passing precision over last season's 66.2% rate.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.

The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.

The predictive model expects Brock Purdy to attempt 32.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-fewest among all quarterbacks.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Jacksonville's collection of LBs has been terrific since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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