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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy Completions
Player Prop Week 16

Indianapolis Colts vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Brock Purdy Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The San Francisco 49ers have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 59.4 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • The Colts defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, inducing opposing QBs to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (38.9 per game) this year.
  • With an excellent 69.1% Adjusted Completion% (86th percentile) this year, Brock Purdy places as one of the most on-target QBs in the league.
  • As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Indianapolis's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread implies a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6 points.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 125.9 plays on offense run: the 2nd-lowest number among all games this week.

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