Brock Purdy Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Brock Purdy

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Completions

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 24, 2023 12:01 AM EST

Analysis

Brock Purdy Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
With an excellent 68.6% Adjusted Completion% (82nd percentile) this year, Brock Purdy has been among the most on-target QBs in the league.
This year, the poor Vikings defense has allowed a massive 79.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the worst rate in football.

Favors Under

This week's line implies a running game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The predictive model expects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the 49ers are predicted by our trusted projection set to run only 62.9 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.2 plays per game.
Our trusted projections expect Brock Purdy to attempt 33.3 passes in this week's contest, on average: the fewest among all quarterbacks.

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