Brock Purdy Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 18

NFL · Player Props

Brock Purdy

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Completions

San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Brock Purdy Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -106 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the 49ers to run the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 69.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest rate in the league against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (73.9%).
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks project as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The San Francisco 49ers have incorporated some form of misdirection on 68.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (most in the league), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a big 14.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 49.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone no-huddle on a mere 3.4% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (6th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.