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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy Carries
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Brock Purdy Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+102/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -121.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
  • Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to run on 46.1% of their downs: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 49ers may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy.
  • Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.
  • Brock Purdy has been a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this year (8.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (15.4%).
  • As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Jacksonville's unit has been tremendous since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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