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Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy Carries
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Brock Purdy Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+102/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -121.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 3-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the 49ers to run on 46.1% of their downs: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 49ers may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy.

Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.

Brock Purdy has been a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this year (8.8% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (15.4%).

As it relates to the safeties' role in run defense, Jacksonville's unit has been tremendous since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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