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Brian Thomas Jr.

Brian Thomas Jr. Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Brian Thomas Jr. Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+230/-265).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -290 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -265.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-heavy team in the league (63.6% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
  • The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the 2nd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bills, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.3 per game) this year.
  • Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in the league vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the feeble Buffalo Bills run defense has conceded a monstrous 1.41 TDs on the ground per game to opposing offenses: the worst rate in the NFL.
  • As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's group of safeties has been dreadful this year, ranking as the worst in football. in football.

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