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Brian Robinson

Brian Robinson Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Brian Robinson Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+470/-830).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -750 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -830.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The 49ers may pass less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to start backup quarterback Brock Purdy.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
  • With a terrible ratio of only 0.00 touchdowns on the ground per game (1st percentile), Brian Robinson ranks among the weakest rushing touchdown-scorers in the league this year.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has given up the 6th-most TDs through the air in the league to running backs: 0.25 per game since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3.5-point advantage, the 49ers are favored in this game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical approach.
  • The model projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 53.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 9th-most run-focused offense in football near the end zone (45.7% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the San Francisco 49ers.
  • Right now, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the San Francisco 49ers.
  • The projections expect Brian Robinson to be a more integral piece of his team's running game near the end zone in this contest (21.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.2% in games he has played).

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