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Brian Robinson

Brian Robinson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders

Brian Robinson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+220/-300).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +230 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +220.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have run for the most TDs in the league (1.60 per game) versus the Chicago Bears defense this year.

The Chicago Bears defensive ends project as the 2nd-worst group of DEs in the NFL this year in regard to stopping the run.

The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Washington Commanders have risked going for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 6th-least run-centric team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 39.2% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 7th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Washington Commanders O-line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year in run blocking.

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