Brian Robinson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing TD

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+147/-201).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -161 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -201.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 46.1% red zone run rate.
The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 62.1 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The New York Giants have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Washington Commanders have elected to go for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New York Giants defensive tackles rank as the 2nd-best collection of DTs in football this year in regard to defending the run.

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