Brian Robinson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Brian Robinson

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 15, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+241/-393).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +271 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +241.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have risked going for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
The Washington Commanders have utilized some form of misdirection on 57.2% of their plays since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to be a much smaller piece of his offense's run game near the goal line this week (42.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (52.6% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends profile as the best collection of DEs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

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