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Brian Robinson

Brian Robinson Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 10

Philadelphia Eagles vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Brian Robinson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+241/-393).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +271 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +241.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run on the slate this week at 132.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Washington Commanders have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 61.7 plays per game.
  • The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
  • The Washington Commanders have risked going for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
  • The Washington Commanders have utilized some form of misdirection on 57.2% of their plays since the start of last season (4th-most in the NFL), which masks an offenses true intentions and may make them more effective.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects Brian Robinson to be a much smaller piece of his offense's run game near the goal line this week (42.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (52.6% in games he has played).
  • The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year at opening holes for rushers.
  • The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends profile as the best collection of DEs in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

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