Brian Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 5, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Brian Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Brian Robinson has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (32.6% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (20.0%).
Brian Robinson's 16.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this season represents a a noteworthy progression in his receiving prowess over last season's 5.0 mark.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bears, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.
As it relates to air yards, Brian Robinson grades out in just the 15th percentile among running backs this year, averaging just -4.0 per game.
With a weak 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (1st percentile) since the start of last season, Brian Robinson places among the leading RB receiving threats in the NFL in space.