Brian Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Brian Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+104/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ +102 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
Brian Robinson has played on 44.8% of his offense's snaps since the start of last season, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
Brian Robinson has accumulated a mere -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 24th percentile among running backs.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
Brian Robinson has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among RBs, completing a measly 74.9% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 22nd percentile.