Brian Robinson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

NFL · Player Props

Brian Robinson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs New York Giants · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Brian Robinson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-125/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 14.0% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to pass on 61.0% of their opportunities: the 5th-highest rate on the slate this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 130.3 total plays called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
The 10th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Commanders this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).
Brian Robinson has gone out for more passes this season (32.4% Route Participation% in games he has played) than he did last season (20.0%).

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is implied by the Commanders being a huge 7.5-point favorite this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the New York Giants, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in football (just 33.7 per game) this year.
As it relates to air yards, Brian Robinson grades out in the lowly 17th percentile among RBs this year, averaging just -2.0 per game.
Brian Robinson has been one of the weakest running backs in the league at grinding out extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 2nd percentile.
This year, the formidable Giants defense has conceded a paltry 21.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 3rd-fewest in football.