Brett Rypien TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Brett Rypien

NFL · Player Props

Brett Rypien

QB · Los Angeles Rams

TD Passes

Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Brett Rypien TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-256/+189).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -250 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -256.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Rams will be rolling with backup quarterback Brett Rypien in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Rams, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The 9th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Rams this year (a colossal 60.9 per game on average).
This year, the anemic Packers defense has allowed a whopping 75.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 5th-biggest rate in football.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Rams to be the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 53.9% red zone pass rate.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Rams are forecasted by the model to run only 62.5 total plays in this contest: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
In this contest, Brett Rypien is expected by the projection model to average the 9th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 33.1.
The Rams offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
This year, the fierce Packers defense has yielded a meager 1.14 passing touchdowns per game to opposing QBs: the 8th-best rate in football.

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