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Brenton Strange

Brenton Strange Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Brenton Strange Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+335/-520).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -430 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -520.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Jaguars offensive strategy to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with head coach Liam Coen now calling the plays.
  • The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Jaguars to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • While Brenton Strange has been responsible for 0.0% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a much bigger part of Jacksonville's passing offense near the end zone in this week's game at 13.9%.
  • In regards to air yards, Brenton Strange grades out in the lofty 81st percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, accruing a whopping 25.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are expected by the predictive model to run only 62.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars since the start of last season (a lowly 55.6 per game on average).
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
  • This year, Brenton Strange has not caught any receiving TDs this year.
  • Since the start of last season, the formidable San Francisco 49ers defense has conceded a measly 69.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 7th-lowest rate in football.

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