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Brenton Strange

Brenton Strange Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 3

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Brenton Strange Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+430/-730).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -440 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -730.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Jaguars feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Liam Coen, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
  • Right now, the 7th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (62.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Jacksonville Jaguars.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to see 129.1 offensive plays run: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • The model projects Brenton Strange to be much more involved in his offense's passing attack near the goal line in this game (12.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.5% in games he has played).
  • When it comes to air yards, Brenton Strange ranks in the towering 80th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, averaging an astounding 25.0 per game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Jaguars have run the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a measly 55.3 plays per game.
  • The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • Since the start of last season, the stout Houston Texans defense has given up a meager 64.9% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing quarterbacks: the lowest rate in the league.

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