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Brenton Strange

Brenton Strange Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Brenton Strange Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+245/-325).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +265 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +245.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the Jaguars as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 59.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars this year (a colossal 58.9 per game on average).
  • Brenton Strange has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 15.2% this year, which ranks in the 78th percentile among tight ends.
  • Brenton Strange has compiled far more air yards this season (38.0 per game) than he did last season (23.0 per game).
  • Brenton Strange's 35.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 21.9.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars rank as the 10th-most run-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 50.1% red zone run rate.
  • The leading projections forecast the Jaguars to call the fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • Opposing teams teams have been wary to lean on the pass against the Bills, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.3 per game) this year.
  • The Bills pass defense has yielded the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (67%) vs. tight ends this year (67.0%).
  • This year, the feeble Buffalo Bills run defense has conceded a monstrous 1.41 TDs on the ground per game to opposing offenses: the worst rate in the NFL.

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