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Brenton Strange

Brenton Strange Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Tennessee Titans

 
 
 
Brenton Strange Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+200/-245).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -245 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -245.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Jaguars offensive scheme to lean 2.7% more towards the passing attack than it did last season (adjusted for context) with head coach Liam Coen now calling the plays.
  • The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jaguars this year (a staggering 59.4 per game on average).
  • After totaling 23.0 air yards per game last year, Brenton Strange has seen marked improvement this year, currently boasting 38.0 per game.
  • Brenton Strange's 34.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 21.9.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in football against the Tennessee Titans defense this year (74.7% Adjusted Completion%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • An extreme running game script is suggested by the Jaguars being a massive 13-point favorite in this game.
  • The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 53.7% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects this game to chug along at the 11th-most sluggish tempo on the slate this week, averaging 26.81 seconds per play accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Titans, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.8 per game) this year.
  • Opposing teams have run for the 4th-most TDs in the league (1.25 per game) vs. the Titans defense this year.

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