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Brenton Strange

Brenton Strange Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

 
 
 
Brenton Strange Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-104/-101).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -104.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Jaguars offensive strategy to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized) with head coach Liam Coen now calling the plays.
  • The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Jaguars to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Brenton Strange has run fewer routes this season (75.2% Route Participation% in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (45.2%).
  • In this game, Brenton Strange is anticipated by the projections to place in the 84th percentile among tight ends with 5.5 targets.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are expected by the predictive model to run only 62.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 7th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Jacksonville Jaguars since the start of last season (a lowly 55.6 per game on average).
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 30.0 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
  • Since the start of last season, the tough 49ers defense has conceded a mere 73.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 9th-best rate in the NFL.
  • The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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