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Brenton Strange

Brenton Strange Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Brenton Strange Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-138/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -138.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 135.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Jaguars have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a massive 59.5 plays per game.
  • In this contest, Brenton Strange is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 88th percentile among TEs with 5.6 targets.
  • Brenton Strange has been a more integral piece of his team's pass game this season (17.8% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (10.5%).
  • With an impressive 3.4 adjusted catches per game (80th percentile) this year, Brenton Strange rates among the leading pass-game tight ends in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 13.5-point advantage, the Jaguars are a heavy favorite this week, suggesting much more of a reliance on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 7th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 52.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt lessened passing efficiency, lower air attack volume, and increased run volume.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the New York Jets, averaging the 7th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.4 per game) this year.

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