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Brenton Strange

Brenton Strange Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Carolina Panthers

 
 
 
Brenton Strange Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars feature a new play-caller this year in head coach Liam Coen, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
  • The predictive model expects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 62.1% pass rate.
  • The model projects Brenton Strange to earn 4.9 targets this week, on balance, ranking him in the 84th percentile among TEs.
  • The Jacksonville offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in the NFL last year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • Last year, the deficient Panthers pass defense has been torched for a monstrous 77.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 9th-highest rate in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • A running game script is indicated by the Jaguars being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jacksonville Jaguars are projected by the projection model to call only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 11th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL last year, totaling a lowly 54.6 plays per game.
  • Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to pass too much against the Panthers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 30.9 per game) last year.

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