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Breece Hall

Breece Hall Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Breece Hall Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+154/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -156 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Jets will be rolling out backup quarterback Justin Fields in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • Breece Hall has accumulated a staggering 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among running backs. (That might not seem too impressive, but most RBs average negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • The Jets offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.
  • Breece Hall has not rushed for any TDs this year.
  • The Dolphins defense has yielded the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in football to RBs: 0.20 per game since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Jets offense to skew 10.6% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand now calling the plays.
  • The predictive model expects the New York Jets to be the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 50.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is projected by the model to see just 123.6 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.
  • The lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the New York Jets since the start of last season (just 55.4 per game on average).
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally mean decreased passing efficiency, lower air volume, and increased ground volume.

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