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Breece Hall

Breece Hall Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 17

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Breece Hall Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+166/-200).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +170 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +166.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Brady Cook in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are enormous -13-point underdogs.
  • The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may decline.
  • Breece Hall has notched a massive 3.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs have negative air yards due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Breece Hall's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 76.7% to 89.2%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (54.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New York Jets.
  • Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the predictive model to call only 62.2 total plays in this game: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
  • The predictive model expects Breece Hall to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game near the end zone in this week's contest (60.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (46.2% in games he has played).
  • Breece Hall's 15.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 21.8.
  • This year, the tough New England Patriots defense has yielded a puny 0.13 TDs through the air per game to opposing RBs: the 6th-best rate in football.

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