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Breece Hall

Breece Hall Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

New Orleans Saints vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Breece Hall Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+136/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -150 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -154.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Jets may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) as a result of being be rolling with backup QB Brady Cook.
  • This game's line indicates a throwing game script for the Jets, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-highest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 134.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • In regards to air yards, Breece Hall ranks in the towering 94th percentile among RBs this year, accruing an impressive 4.0 per game. (because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Jets to be the least pass-focused team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 54.2% pass rate.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the New Orleans Saints, totaling the fewest attempts in the NFL (just 28.6 per game) this year.
  • While Breece Hall has received 46.0% of his team's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in New York's running game near the end zone in this game at 61.7%.
  • Breece Hall's 16.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 21.8.
  • The New York offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

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