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Breece Hall

Breece Hall Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 12

Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Breece Hall Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+142/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -174 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -170.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Jets are a massive 14-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by our trusted projection set to see just 128.2 offensive plays called: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The Ravens defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (38.8 per game) this year.
  • With a top-tier 14.7% Red Zone Target Rate (92nd percentile) this year, Breece Hall places as one of the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football.
  • When talking about air yards, Breece Hall grades out in the towering 94th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating a monstrous 6.0 per game. (considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the present time, the 5th-least pass-centric team in the league (57.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the New York Jets.
  • The projections expect Breece Hall to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack near the end zone this week (65.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.0% in games he has played).
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Jets grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year.
  • The Ravens pass defense has allowed the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (75.6%) versus running backs this year (75.6%).
  • This year, the shaky Baltimore Ravens run defense has given up a massive 1.10 TDs on the ground per game to opposing offenses: the 8th-largest rate in the league.

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