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Breece Hall

Breece Hall Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Breece Hall Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+186/-210).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -210.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's line indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are enormous -12.5-point underdogs.
  • With an elite 16.1% Red Zone Target Rate (95th percentile) this year, Breece Hall rates among the RB receiving threats with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the NFL.
  • When talking about air yards, Breece Hall ranks in the towering 94th percentile among RBs this year, accumulating a monstrous 6.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards).
  • Breece Hall's 88.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a material improvement in his pass-catching talent over last season's 76.6% mark.
  • This year, the deficient Patriots pass defense has conceded a staggering 88.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by the projections to run only 62.7 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game near the end zone in this week's contest (62.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (40.6% in games he has played).
  • The Jets O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • The Patriots defensive ends grade out as the worst unit in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

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