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Breece Hall

Breece Hall Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
Breece Hall Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+154/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -194 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -190.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With a 59.0% rate of passing the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 9th-most pass-oriented team in football under these circumstances has been the New York Jets.
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to have 131.0 total plays run: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • With a sizeable 16.1% Red Zone Target Rate (93rd percentile) this year, Breece Hall places as one of the pass-catching RBs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in the league.
  • Breece Hall has compiled a staggering 8.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to RBs. (That may not seem like a lot, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
  • Breece Hall's 87.6% Adjusted Completion% this year marks a significant boost in his pass-catching skills over last year's 76.6% rate.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 51.2% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game against the Browns defense this year: 6th-fewest in football.
  • The model projects Breece Hall to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack near the end zone in this week's game (60.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (35.7% in games he has played).
  • As it relates to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the New York Jets grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year.
  • The receiving touchdown line reads "0" on the back of Breece Hall's trading card this year.

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