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Breece Hall Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 57.5 (-165/+125).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 57.5 @ -165.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The model projects the Jets offensive blueprint to lean 9.7% more towards the ground game than it did last year (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand now calling the plays.The leading projections forecast the Jets as the 4th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 47.2% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.The model projects Breece Hall to accumulate 14.1 carries in this game, on average, placing him in the 84th percentile among running backs.With an outstanding total of 54.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (80th percentile), Breece Hall places as one of the leading running backs in the NFL since the start of last season.The Buffalo Bills defense has had the 10th-worst efficiency against opposing run games since the start of last season, yielding 4.71 adjusted yards-per-carry.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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At a -5.5-point disadvantage, the Jets are underdogs in this game, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual approach.Our trusted projections expect this game to see the fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The Jets have run the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.While Breece Hall has earned 62.0% of his offense's carries in games he has played since the start of last season, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller part of New York's ground game in this week's game at 47.3%.
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