Breece Hall Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Breece Hall

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 1, 2025

Updated Sep 7, 2025 5:11 PM EST

Analysis

Breece Hall Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-123/+111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 48.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 43.5 @ +111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
At the moment, the 7th-most run-focused team in football (40.9% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Jets.
With a stellar total of 51.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (77th percentile), Breece Hall has been as one of the top pure rushers in the league last year.
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Pittsburgh's group of DTs has been awful last year, grading out as the 4th-worst in football. in football.

Favors Under

This game's line implies a passing game script for the Jets, who are -3-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Jets to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.9 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Jets last year (a mere 55.7 per game on average).
The leading projections forecast Breece Hall to be a less important option in his offense's ground game this week (35.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been last year (63.6% in games he has played).
With an atrocious rate of 3.87 adjusted yards per carry (25th percentile) last year, Breece Hall has been as one of the weakest pure runners in the NFL at the position.

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