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Breece Hall

Breece Hall Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Breece Hall Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+118/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -121.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.
  • The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (39.5 per game) this year.
  • Our trusted projections expect Breece Hall to notch 4.5 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
  • Breece Hall's 28.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 21.8.
  • Breece Hall's sure-handedness have gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 76.6% to 80.3%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Jets to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have just 125.8 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (a mere 53.2 per game on average).
  • The Jets O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • Breece Hall's 2.6 adjusted catches per game this year represents a noteable regression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 3.6 figure.

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