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Breece Hall

Breece Hall Receptions
Player Prop Week 17

New York Jets vs New England Patriots

 
 
 
Breece Hall Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-190/+148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -235 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +148.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Brady Cook in this week's game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • This game's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are enormous -13-point underdogs.
  • The passing games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may decline.
  • Breece Hall's sure-handedness have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate rising from 76.7% to 89.2%.
  • The Patriots pass defense has been gouged for the 10th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (85.5%) versus RBs this year (85.5%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the least pass-oriented offense in the NFL (54.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New York Jets.
  • Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the predictive model to call only 62.2 total plays in this game: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
  • Breece Hall's 15.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 21.8.
  • Breece Hall's 2.0 adjusted receptions per game this year shows a remarkable regression in his pass-catching ability over last year's 3.6 figure.
  • The Patriots linebackers profile as the 2nd-best LB corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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