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Breece Hall

Breece Hall Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

New England Patriots vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Breece Hall Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+140/-185).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -185.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This game's line indicates an extreme throwing game script for the Jets, who are enormous -13-point underdogs.
  • Our trusted projections expect Breece Hall to accumulate 3.6 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
  • Breece Hall's 88.0% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a material improvement in his pass-catching talent over last season's 76.6% mark.
  • This year, the deficient Patriots pass defense has conceded a staggering 88.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 5th-highest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New York Jets are predicted by the projections to run only 62.3 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-fewest among all teams this week.
  • Breece Hall's 41.6% Route Participation Rate this season represents a substantial decline in his passing attack volume over last season's 60.6% figure.
  • The Jets O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
  • Breece Hall's 2.2 adjusted catches per game this season reflects a noteworthy reduction in his receiving proficiency over last season's 3.6 rate.

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