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Breece Hall

Breece Hall Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

New York Jets vs Dallas Cowboys

 
 
 
Breece Hall Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -145.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being called for in this game) generally lead to increased passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and reduced run volume.
  • The Dallas Cowboys defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing QBs to attempt the 7th-most passes in the league (39.5 per game) this year.
  • Our trusted projections expect Breece Hall to notch 4.5 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 94th percentile among RBs.
  • When it comes to air yards, Breece Hall ranks in the lofty 98th percentile among RBs this year, totaling a staggering 10.0 per game. (as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards).
  • Breece Hall's 28.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 21.8.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The model projects the Jets to be the least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 48.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to have just 125.8 plays on offense run: the 3rd-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The 6th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (a mere 53.2 per game on average).
  • The Jets O-line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.
  • Breece Hall has compiled a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (20.0) this year than he did last year (29.0).

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