Breece Hall Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New York Jets · Week 3, 2025

Updated Sep 21, 2025 4:37 PM EST

Analysis

Breece Hall Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-114/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Tyrod Taylor in this contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Jets are a big 7-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Our trusted projections expect Breece Hall to garner 3.3 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile among running backs.
Breece Hall has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, posting a Target Share of 13.8% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 97th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The New York Jets feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 13.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the New York Jets to pass on 52.4% of their downs: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is anticipated by the projections to have only 121.6 plays on offense run: the 2nd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Jets since the start of last season (a measly 55.3 per game on average).
Breece Hall ranks as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league when it comes to running backs, completing a mere 77.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 19th percentile.