Breece Hall Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 30, 2024 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

Breece Hall Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the present time, the 4th-most pass-heavy team in football (63.1% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the New York Jets.
New York's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially deflated (and rushing stats propped up a bit) as a result of playing the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the NFL. We should be able to expect some regression with improved conditions in this week's contest.
In this game, Breece Hall is projected by the model to secure a spot in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs with 6.1 targets.
Breece Hall has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 17.4% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Breece Hall ranks in the 95th percentile among RBs this year with a staggering 4.1% of his team's air yards accumulated.

Favors Under

This week's line indicates a rushing game script for the Jets, who are favored by 6 points.
Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Jets are forecasted by the model to run only 62.8 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Jets offensive line grades out as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Breece Hall's 6.31 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year indicates a noteworthy reduction in his effectiveness in space over last year's 7.5% rate.
Since the start of last season, the stout Broncos defense has given up the 9th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing running backs: a meager 5.4 yards.