Breece Hall Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 5:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Breece Hall Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -7-point disadvantage, the Jets are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting much more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Jets to pass on 60.9% of their opportunities: the 7th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The projections expect Breece Hall to notch 7.0 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs.
While Breece Hall has received 15.2% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of New York's passing attack this week at 21.5%.
Breece Hall has totaled a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (32.0) this season than he did last season (27.0).

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the New York Jets are anticipated by the predictive model to call only 63.3 total plays in this game: the 5th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The New York Jets have called the 7th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.9 plays per game.
After averaging 23.0 air yards per game last season, Breece Hall has significantly declined this season, now sitting at -2.0 per game.
When talking about pocket protection (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the New York Jets ranks as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
Breece Hall comes in as one of the worst RBs in the league at picking up extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 3rd percentile.