Breece Hall Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Breece Hall

RB · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Breece Hall Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 26.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets may pass less in this week's contest (and hand the ball off more) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Tim Boyle.
The Jets feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Jets to pass on 59.8% of their plays: the 7th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is forecasted by our trusted projection set to have 131.6 plays on offense called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
This week, Breece Hall is anticipated by the projection model to slot into the 96th percentile among RBs with 5.8 targets.

Favors Under

The 6th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Jets this year (a mere 54.9 per game on average).
Breece Hall has totaled far fewer air yards this season (-2.0 per game) than he did last season (23.0 per game).
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Breece Hall has been incorporated much less in his offense's pass game.
When it comes to pass protection (and the effect it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Jets grades out as the worst in football this year.
Breece Hall is positioned as one of the worst RBs in the league at generating extra yardage in the passing game, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 2nd percentile.