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Breece Hall

Breece Hall Carries
Player Prop Week 15

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New York Jets

 
 
 
Breece Hall Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -131 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -125.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The model projects the New York Jets to be the most run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 45.2% run rate.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 135.6 offensive plays run: the 2nd-highest number among all games this week.
  • The weatherman calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • The predictive model expects Breece Hall to earn 21.5 carries this week, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
  • While Breece Hall has accounted for 58.9% of his team's run game usage in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a more integral piece of New York's running game in this game at 73.9%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The New York Jets may lean on the pass less in this contest (and hand the ball off more) since they be forced to start backup quarterback Brady Cook.
  • This game's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Jets, who are enormous -13.5-point underdogs.
  • The Jaguars linebackers profile as the 4th-best unit in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

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