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Braxton Berrios

Braxton Berrios Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Houston Texans vs San Francisco 49ers

 
 
 
Braxton Berrios Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+840/-980).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -890 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -980.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At the present time, the 4th-most pass-oriented team in football near the goal line (60.5% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Houston Texans.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have 132.7 total plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Opposing offenses have rushed for the 7th-fewest TDs in football (0.57 per game) against the 49ers defense this year.
  • The San Francisco cornerbacks project as the worst CB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Texans are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
  • Braxton Berrios has notched a mere 4.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 9th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
  • This year, the stout San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded a puny 0.71 passing TDs per game to opposing WRs: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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