Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · Miami Dolphins

Receiving Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 26.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Dolphins are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Dolphins as the 6th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Braxton Berrios's 26.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 12.2.
Braxton Berrios's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 58.9% to 64.7%.
Braxton Berrios's pass-catching efficiency has been refined this year, averaging 10.21 yards-per-target compared to a mere 5.46 rate last year.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Dolphins to run the 7th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Dolphins have called the 3rd-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.5 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-fewest in football.
Braxton Berrios has been among the weakest wide receivers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 16.0 yards per game while grading out in the 17th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
The Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.26 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the fewest in the NFL.