Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Braxton Berrios

WR · New York Jets

Receiving Yards

New York Jets vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Braxton Berrios Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 27.5 (+116/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 27.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Braxton Berrios has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football, hauling in an impressive 77.8% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 94th percentile among WRs.
Braxton Berrios has been among the best WRs in the NFL at generating extra yardage, averaging an impressive 4.57 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 78th percentile.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded the 2nd-most receiving yards per game in football (173.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the 8th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets have called the 5th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.4 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season.
The New York Jets have faced a stacked the box on just 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The New York Jets have used play action on a measly 23.1% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (8th-least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.