Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Brandon Aiyuk

NFL · Player Props

Brandon Aiyuk

WR · San Francisco 49ers

Receiving TD

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM EST

Analysis

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+232/-366).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +237 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +232.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Brandon Aiyuk has been a key part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.4% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 82nd percentile among wideouts.
Brandon Aiyuk has earned a whopping 23.8% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 80th percentile among wide receivers.
Brandon Aiyuk's 51.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 43.1.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers defense has surrendered the 5th-least passing TDs in football to WRs: 0.50 per game this year.
The Carolina Panthers linebackers rank as the 4th-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in football since the start of last season.

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