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Brandin Cooks

Brandin Cooks Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
Brandin Cooks Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +115.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • A throwing game script is implied by the Saints being a -3.5-point underdog in this game.
  • The predictive model expects the Saints to run the most total plays among all teams this week with 68.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The Saints offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.
  • Brandin Cooks's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 52.8% to 76.9%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • At the moment, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (59.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New Orleans Saints.
  • Brandin Cooks has been much less involved in his team's pass attack this season (8.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (15.4%).
  • This year, the tough Buccaneers defense has surrendered a measly 61.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 9th-smallest rate in football.
  • When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Tampa Bay's collection of CBs has been fantastic this year, grading out as the 5th-best in the league.

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