Brandin Cooks Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Brandin Cooks

WR · Houston Texans

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Brandin Cooks Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-117/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -107 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.40 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Brandin Cooks to earn 9.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 94th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Brandin Cooks's 60.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 71.8.
Brandin Cooks's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.2% to 59.0%.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 6th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.
The Houston Texans O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.33 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.