Boston Scott Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Boston Scott

RB · Philadelphia Eagles

Rushing TD

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Boston Scott Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+436/-994).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -944 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -994.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles to be the 3rd-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 63.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line grades out as the 3rd-best in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Boston Scott has rushed for 0.62 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest figures in football among RBs (95th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Boston Scott to be a less important option in his offense's running game near the goal line this week (14.1% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (26.6% in games he has played).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 10th-least TDs in the league (0.79 per game) vs. the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders defensive ends rank as the 5th-best group of DEs in football since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The Philadelphia Eagles have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Philadelphia Eagles have utilized motion in their offense on 28.1% of their plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.